Coin flip poll: toss a coin IRL, and let's see what the distribution looks like.

Poll's done!

"Tails" came out ahead, and was actually in the lead the whole time. The gap closed to about 1% about half way, and then grew again. If it was the first option, I'd kind of think that people were just donkey voting, but maybe it'd smooth out again after a long enough time.

Someone please submit a patch to Mastodon that randomises the presented order of poll options, please.

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@mike Full disclosure: Lacking cash, I tossed a non-coin flat thing that I scribbled “heads” and “tails” onto.

@mike Is it OK if I didn't want to get up so did `if (( $RANDOM % 2 )); then echo heads; else echo tails; fi` instead?

@stibbons I'm kinda guessing that if we get enough responses, any inaccuracy from non-traditional methods will balance out too. :awesome:

@mike Good, because I didn't want to go out to the shed and warm up my lava lamp.
@futzle @mike My lamp still has the original bottle from when it was given to me in 1997. Keep meaning to figure out how to use it as an entropy source, just so I can say I have.

@mike @stibbons If you get enough responses, someone is going to demand an “Edge” option.

@mike I'm concernedb that we haven't controlled for starting position. If you start at heads, do you get more heads or more tails?

@Andrea @mike So you’re saying we need to control for Fediverse donkey voting?

@mike I dropped an appointment card edgeways down. Landed blank side up, so tails.

@mike I don't have any coins and I don't know how to use a computer, so I made a spinner out of office supplies and whatever other objects I could find at my desk

The small metal disc with the picture of a torch represents "heads", and the one with the picture of a man's face is "tails"

@matt I'm loving the creative solutions for generating a 50/50 chance.

@mike What's a coin? Or, for that matter, cash?

@mike Looking at the replies to this, I am feeling downright old fashioned about having a coin around that I could flip.

@mike looking for a seed for your PRNG, are you?

@bhtooefr just checking that the universe is calibrated correctly

@mike I just asked Siri to "toss a coin" and then reported its results.

@pelagikat any recollection when? Closest I saw was 49/51, at around 100-ish votes.

@mike @pelagikat It read 50/50 when I voted. But I can't remember the exact number of votes. Was pretty early, iirc.

@mike I think it was around one of the times you retooted it, so maybe at that same time.

@mike If it's any conciliation I actually tossed an actual $2, 2018 special release "Lest we Forget" coin.

@dadegroot @mike I keep some 2 cent pieces around for exactly these purposes. I am your antitheses.

@mike thank you for this demonstration of statistical significance (or not, as the case may be)

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